This report draws on historical data from trade associations and publications, government agencies and other industry sources. Recent trends in industry performance are analysed and the factors underlying those trends identified. Factors considered include economic, strategic, operational, technological, demographic, political, cultural, institutional, behavioural, competitive and other drivers that may affect particular entertainment and media markets. The forecasts have been prepared in conjunction with Wilkofsky Gruen Associates and consider the dynamics of each segment in each region, and the factors that affect those dynamics. We recognise that unforeseeable events, such as acts of terrorism or significant natural or environmental catastrophes, can occur at any time and affect the outlook. But due to their unpredictable nature, such events have not been contemplated in this forecast.
We provide annual growth rates for the years 2007–16 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that covers the 2012–16 forecast period. In calculations of the CAGR, 2011 is the beginning year, with five years during the forecast period: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Models are then developed to quantify the impact of each factor on industry spending. A forecast scenario for each causal factor is created and the contribution of each factor on a prospective basis is identified. Proprietary mathematical models and analytical algorithms are used to provide an initial array of prospective values. We rely on our professional expertise and institutional knowledge to review and adjust these values, if required. The entire process is then examined for internal consistency and transparency vis-à-vis prevailing industry wisdom. The regions include the countries listed in the table below.
The formula is: CAGR = 100*((value in 2016/value in 2011)^(1/5)–1).
All figures are reported in nominal terms and include the effects of inflation. Segment spending consists of advertising and end-user spending on entertainment and media products and services. We do not include spending on hardware or on services that may be needed to access content. For example, in TV, radio, music, filmed entertainment, and video games, we do not include spending on TV sets, radio sets, CD players or portable listening devices, DVD players, or video game consoles.
Spending is at the end-user level and includes retail mark-ups where applicable. Advertising is measured net of agency commissions in all regions except the United States and Russia, where gross advertising is measured to be consistent with the way advertising is generally reported. All figures are presented in Australian dollars using the average 2011 exchange rate with the US dollar held constant for each historical and forecast year.
In this way, the data reflects industry trends and is not distorted by fluctuations in international exchange rates. In some instances, historical figures have been restated to reflect additional data that has become available. Many figures have been rounded for presentation purposes and therefore there may be some minor differences in the total presented on each table. The average exchange rate for 2011 used was US$1 = A$0.9687.